Rapid Intensification Guidance WP022023 230531 00UTC Storm Located at : 21.50 125.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 60. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 60.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 18.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 2.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 6.70 F TC SIZE [%] 100.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 20.1 17.5 15.6 16.8 14.8 18.6 18.6 20.1 N F F F F N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 31.0 16.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 76.6 71.2 64.3 61.1 61.1 58.0 44.2 37.0 U U U U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 73.0 82.0 35.0 34.0 12.0 -30.0 -33.0 -46.0 N N N N U VU VU VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 72.0 74.0 73.0 73.0 71.0 68.0 63.0 62.0 N N N N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 16.0 8.0 6.0 2.0 3.0 8.0 0.0 4.0 U U N N N U N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.3% 0.5% 0.4% 25kt / 24h 0.5% 1.6% 1.0% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.6% 0.4% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.5% 0.3% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.5% 0.3% 45kt / 36h 0.2% 0.9% 0.6% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.78 WP022023 230531 00UTC Storm Located at : 21.50 125.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 60.