Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP022023 230531 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.30    125.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     36.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      6.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    114.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.4  12.3  15.5  15.4  18.8  18.7  15.8  19.5  F  F  F  F  N  N  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   11.0   3.0   3.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         64.4  57.7  56.1  56.1  53.0  40.4  32.0  30.9  U  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    91.0  49.0  80.0  64.0 -30.0 -56.0 -35.0 -58.0  F  N  N  N VU VU VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  74.0  75.0  75.0  69.0  65.0  62.0  58.0  N  N  F  F  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  10.0   4.0   8.0  12.0  11.0   3.0  17.0 -12.0  U  N  U  U  U  N  U  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.2%        1.0%        1.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.9%        3.0%        2.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.6%        1.4%        1.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.3%        1.3%        0.8%
 40kt / 24h        0.1%        1.3%        0.7%
 45kt / 36h        0.4%        1.6%        1.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.48

 WP022023 230531 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.30    125.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.