Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP022023 230531 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.50    125.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     14.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      1.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    106.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.6  16.9  21.7  23.4  27.4  24.6  37.0  85.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         61.1  61.1  58.0  50.8  40.5  34.8  20.8   4.1  U  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    62.0  44.0  14.0 -16.0 -60.0 -26.0 -56.0 -20.0  N  N  U  U VU VU VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  72.0  71.0  69.0  65.0  65.0  59.0  50.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  12.0  17.0  12.0  19.0  24.0  10.0 -35.0 -45.0  U  U  U VU VU  U VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.4%        0.4%        0.4%
 25kt / 24h        0.3%        0.7%        0.5%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        0.3%        0.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.04

 WP022023 230531 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.50    125.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.