Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP022023 230601 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     24.20    125.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      9.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    109.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.2  25.1  28.8  27.4  32.5  32.3  48.0  77.8  N  N  N  N  U  U VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         66.1  64.6  58.6  54.4  44.3  39.8   9.6   5.1  U  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    35.0  15.0 -47.0 -41.0 -63.0 -27.0 -25.0  56.0  N  U VU VU VU VU VU  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  70.0  67.0  63.0  53.0  48.0  36.0  33.0  N  N  N  N  U  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  22.0  17.0  22.0   5.0  18.0 -18.0 -38.0 -47.0 VU  U VU  N VU VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.2%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 25.90

 WP022023 230601 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     24.20    125.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.