Rapid Intensification Guidance WP022023 230601 06UTC Storm Located at : 25.00 126.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 50.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 10.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 14.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 8.20 F TC SIZE [%] 112.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 21.3 27.2 28.3 30.4 33.7 29.5 58.0 107.8 N N N N U N VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 71.1 66.5 60.8 54.2 47.0 30.8 26.2 7.7 U U U U U VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 33.0 -33.0 -45.0 -55.0 -11.0 13.0 19.0 24.0 N VU VU VU U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 69.0 66.0 64.0 61.0 57.0 46.0 38.0 37.0 N N N N U VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 12.0 10.0 12.0 21.0 18.0 27.0 24.0 -95.0 U U U VU VU VU VU VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 25.80 WP022023 230601 06UTC Storm Located at : 25.00 126.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50.