Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP022023 230601 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     25.80    127.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     20.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      1.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    120.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        32.3  32.2  36.5  35.2  24.4  45.0  78.4 117.5  U  U  U  U  N VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         63.6  59.4  52.9  49.3  45.9  16.7  10.5   1.3  U  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -28.0 -40.0 -87.0 -84.0 -17.0 -18.0  50.0  12.0 VU VU VU VU  U  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  60.0  59.0  57.0  51.0  36.0  35.0  36.0  N  N  U  U  U VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  27.0  16.0  16.0  21.0 -27.0 -42.0-119.0 -61.0 VU  U  U VU VF VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 25.36

 WP022023 230601 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     25.80    127.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.