Rapid Intensification Guidance WP022023 230601 18UTC Storm Located at : 26.40 128.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 50.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 3.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 34.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 16.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 7.30 F TC SIZE [%] 112.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 33.1 33.1 29.7 29.4 28.9 81.6 81.6 81.6 U U N N N VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 58.0 51.7 51.7 45.9 30.8 11.3 11.3 11.3 U U U U VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -41.0 -84.0 -59.0 -44.0 5.0 -27.0 -27.0 -27.0 VU VU VU VU U VU VU VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 62.0 61.0 61.0 58.0 53.0 43.0 43.0 43.0 N N N U U VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 15.0 10.0 13.0 11.0 -38.0-141.0-141.0-141.0 U U U U VF VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 24.98 WP022023 230601 18UTC Storm Located at : 26.40 128.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50.