Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP032023 230606 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.40    134.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     44.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     30.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    112.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.3  16.4  10.9  10.1  10.2  13.0  22.3  32.1  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  107.0  96.0  84.0  70.0  50.0  36.0  30.0  27.0  F  F  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 134.6 130.1  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   110.0  99.0  71.0  82.0  50.0  55.0  22.0  30.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  66.0  67.0  63.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  59.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   1.0   0.0   0.0  -2.0   0.0  -2.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.6%        5.6%        4.1%
 25kt / 24h       36.0%       58.7%       47.4%
 30kt / 24h       16.0%       36.2%       26.1%
 35kt / 24h        5.2%       33.3%       19.3%
 40kt / 24h        3.3%       33.3%       18.3%
 45kt / 36h       38.4%       77.2%       57.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       59.1%       29.6%
 55kt / 48h       51.4%       64.9%       58.2%
 70kt / 48h       31.1%       63.7%       47.4%
 65kt / 72h       61.9%       67.4%       64.7%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.28

 WP032023 230606 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.40    134.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    112.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.3  16.4  10.9  10.1  10.2  13.0  22.3  32.1  N  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  66.0  67.0  63.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  59.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   1.0   0.0   0.0  -2.0   0.0  -2.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%