Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP032023 230606 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.80    134.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     37.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     19.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    115.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.0  11.1  10.8  12.3  14.2  19.4  25.5  32.2  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   98.0  87.0  76.0  61.0  36.0  23.0  15.0  17.0  F  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 134.3 127.3 125.1  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   112.0  93.0  70.0 101.0  16.0  52.0  51.0  49.0  F  F  N  F  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  60.0  59.0  62.0  60.0  61.0  61.0  61.0  N  N  U  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   2.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        7.7%       10.4%        9.0%
 25kt / 24h       49.0%       67.1%       58.0%
 30kt / 24h       26.2%       45.8%       36.0%
 35kt / 24h       13.1%       45.2%       29.1%
 40kt / 24h        8.2%       45.2%       26.7%
 45kt / 36h       41.9%       78.2%       60.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       61.6%       30.8%
 55kt / 48h       50.5%       57.3%       53.9%
 70kt / 48h       24.8%       55.5%       40.1%
 65kt / 72h       53.1%       52.7%       52.9%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.14

 WP032023 230606 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.80    134.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    115.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.0  11.1  10.8  12.3  14.2  19.4  25.5  32.2  N  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  60.0  59.0  62.0  60.0  61.0  61.0  61.0  N  N  F  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   2.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%