Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP032023 230606 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.70    134.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     56.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     41.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    102.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.1  10.3   9.3  11.7  20.6  29.7  35.5  38.4  F  F  F  F  N  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   73.0  58.0  49.0  43.0  37.0  29.0  22.0  20.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 129.3 124.6 117.9 117.9  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    87.0  78.0  52.0  46.0  70.0  27.0  26.0  42.0  F  N  N  N  N  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  65.0  65.0  62.0  66.0  61.0  61.0  71.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   1.0   0.0   0.0  -3.0   4.0   6.0  11.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        5.7%       11.5%        8.6%
 25kt / 24h       36.9%       64.1%       50.5%
 30kt / 24h       19.3%       47.1%       33.2%
 35kt / 24h        9.7%       46.7%       28.2%
 40kt / 24h        7.3%       46.7%       27.0%
 45kt / 36h       30.7%       67.0%       48.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       46.8%       23.4%
 55kt / 48h       34.6%       39.0%       36.8%
 70kt / 48h       21.3%       29.1%       25.2%
 65kt / 72h       20.7%       20.5%       20.6%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.08

 WP032023 230606 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.70    134.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    102.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.1  10.3   9.3  11.7  20.6  29.7  35.5  38.4  U  U  U  U  N  N  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  65.0  65.0  62.0  66.0  61.0  61.0  71.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   1.0   0.0   0.0  -3.0   4.0   6.0  11.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%