Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP032023 230607 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.20    133.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     46.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     20.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    107.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.5  13.7  12.6  17.2  26.8  29.9  31.4  33.1  F  F  F  F  N  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   60.0  50.0  45.0  41.0  26.0  19.0  23.0  20.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 117.0 112.3 110.1 110.1 107.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    40.0  70.0  92.0  65.0  35.0  53.0  41.0  27.0  N  N  F  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  61.0  63.0  65.0  62.0  66.0  67.0  70.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   0.0   4.0   2.0   3.0   3.0  18.0  21.0  N  N  N  N  N  N VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       13.0%       16.0%       14.5%
 25kt / 24h       43.6%       62.3%       52.9%
 30kt / 24h       28.4%       48.5%       38.5%
 35kt / 24h       19.0%       48.5%       33.8%
 40kt / 24h       12.7%       48.5%       30.6%
 45kt / 36h       28.4%       52.5%       40.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       31.8%       15.9%
 55kt / 48h       18.3%       21.9%       20.1%
 70kt / 48h       11.1%       13.8%       12.5%
 65kt / 72h        9.4%       10.7%       10.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.58

 WP032023 230607 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.20    133.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    107.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.5  13.7  12.6  17.2  26.8  29.9  31.4  33.1  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  61.0  63.0  65.0  62.0  66.0  67.0  70.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   0.0   4.0   2.0   3.0   3.0  18.0  21.0  N  N  N  N  N  N VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%