Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP032023 230607 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.30    133.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     74.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     55.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    104.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.2  15.9  16.8  21.0  31.9  37.3  37.0  32.5  F  F  F  N  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   59.0  53.0  46.0  37.0  24.0  19.0  23.0  28.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        110.0 110.0 109.3 104.6 100.1 100.1 100.1 100.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    66.0  87.0  59.0  42.0  37.0  50.0  28.0  14.0  N  F  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  61.0  63.0  64.0  60.0  66.0  68.0  72.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   2.0   1.0   5.0  12.0  15.0  25.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       46.8%       38.3%       42.5%
 25kt / 24h       64.7%       77.2%       71.0%
 30kt / 24h       52.9%       72.6%       62.8%
 35kt / 24h       45.9%       72.6%       59.3%
 40kt / 24h       38.4%       71.4%       54.9%
 45kt / 36h       35.6%       59.6%       47.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       41.0%       20.5%
 55kt / 48h       14.5%       20.8%       17.7%
 70kt / 48h        6.1%       12.0%        9.0%
 65kt / 72h        2.5%        6.2%        4.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.58

 WP032023 230607 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.30    133.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    104.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.2  15.9  16.8  21.0  31.9  37.3  37.0  32.5  U  U  N  N  N  F  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  61.0  63.0  64.0  60.0  66.0  68.0  72.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   2.0   1.0   5.0  12.0  15.0  25.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F VF


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%