Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP032023 230607 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.70    132.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     84.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     68.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    106.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.6  19.5  24.0  25.5  33.0  33.2  32.2  30.4  F  N  N  N  U  U  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   54.0  46.0  38.0  31.0  20.0  17.0  17.0  12.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        105.0 104.3  99.6  97.3  92.9  92.9  88.6  84.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    85.0  65.0  37.0  43.0  57.0  53.0  55.0  81.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  63.0  63.0  61.0  61.0  69.0  73.0  75.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   2.0   2.0   3.0   4.0  10.0  25.0  26.0  N  N  N  N  N  U VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       55.9%       42.7%       49.3%
 25kt / 24h       60.8%       72.2%       66.5%
 30kt / 24h       48.9%       68.8%       58.8%
 35kt / 24h       46.9%       68.8%       57.8%
 40kt / 24h       36.5%       66.7%       51.6%
 45kt / 36h       29.9%       49.1%       39.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       30.3%       15.2%
 55kt / 48h        9.8%       15.8%       12.8%
 70kt / 48h        3.0%        8.0%        5.5%
 65kt / 72h        1.3%        4.5%        2.9%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.42

 WP032023 230607 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.70    132.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    106.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.6  19.5  24.0  25.5  33.0  33.2  32.2  30.4  N  N  N  N  F  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  63.0  63.0  61.0  61.0  69.0  73.0  75.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   2.0   2.0   3.0   4.0  10.0  25.0  26.0  N  N  N  N  N  F VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%