Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP032023 230608 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.20    131.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     67.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     44.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    109.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.5  27.1  32.1  35.5  33.8  34.2  34.7  28.2  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   51.0  38.0  30.0  26.0  26.0  23.0  11.0   9.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         95.0  94.3  89.6  87.3  87.3  85.1  85.1  80.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    74.0  58.0  70.0  51.0  60.0  58.0 105.0  61.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  60.0  58.0  60.0  64.0  70.0  76.0  82.0  N  N  U  N  N  N  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   5.0   4.0   3.0  11.0  32.0  45.0  37.0  N  N  N  N  U VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       36.9%       19.2%       28.0%
 25kt / 24h       37.6%       38.8%       38.2%
 30kt / 24h       26.6%       30.2%       28.4%
 35kt / 24h       24.1%       30.2%       27.2%
 40kt / 24h       17.5%       29.5%       23.5%
 45kt / 36h       15.2%       13.4%       14.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        4.5%        2.2%
 55kt / 48h        2.4%        5.0%        3.7%
 70kt / 48h        0.3%        1.0%        0.7%
 65kt / 72h        0.2%        0.9%        0.6%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.36

 WP032023 230608 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.20    131.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    109.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.5  27.1  32.1  35.5  33.8  34.2  34.7  28.2  N  N  N  F  F  F  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  60.0  58.0  60.0  64.0  70.0  76.0  82.0  N  N  F  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   5.0   4.0   3.0  11.0  32.0  45.0  37.0  N  N  N  N  F VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%