Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP032023 230608 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.40    130.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     79.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     47.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    104.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.1  35.6  35.2  33.9  37.2  37.2  32.2  31.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   45.0  37.0  32.0  29.0  26.0  22.0  12.0   6.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         85.0  84.3  82.0  79.6  75.1  72.9  70.7  66.5  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    52.0  33.0  60.0  84.0  56.0  22.0  80.0  15.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  61.0  61.0  61.0  67.0  71.0  74.0  79.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   8.0   6.0   5.0   3.0  16.0  33.0  23.0  29.0  U  N  N  N  U VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       53.0%       21.6%       37.3%
 25kt / 24h       41.5%       38.8%       40.1%
 30kt / 24h       33.7%       32.7%       33.2%
 35kt / 24h       33.7%       32.7%       33.2%
 40kt / 24h       24.6%       31.0%       27.8%
 45kt / 36h       18.1%       12.5%       15.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        4.4%        2.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.4%        2.8%        1.6%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.40

 WP032023 230608 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.40    130.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    104.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.1  35.6  35.2  33.9  37.2  37.2  32.2  31.0  N  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  61.0  61.0  61.0  67.0  71.0  74.0  79.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   8.0   6.0   5.0   3.0  16.0  33.0  23.0  29.0  F  N  N  N  F VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.9%        0.4%