Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP032023 230608 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.90    130.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     66.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     37.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     92.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        35.5  34.6  31.7  33.5  34.7  34.4  27.3  38.6  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   30.0  26.0  25.0  25.0  17.0   9.0   7.0   3.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         79.6  77.3  77.3  75.1  72.9  70.7  68.6  47.7  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    33.0  60.0  84.0  54.0  62.0  77.0  50.0  24.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  59.0  63.0  66.0  68.0  70.0  77.0  81.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0   6.0   4.0   7.0  25.0  34.0  36.0  39.0  N  N  N  N VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       20.8%        7.4%       14.1%
 25kt / 24h       18.1%       17.5%       17.8%
 30kt / 24h       14.4%       11.7%       13.1%
 35kt / 24h       11.9%       11.7%       11.8%
 40kt / 24h       11.4%       11.4%       11.4%
 45kt / 36h        7.5%        4.5%        6.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.2%        0.6%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        1.2%        0.6%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.16

 WP032023 230608 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.90    130.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     92.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        35.5  34.6  31.7  33.5  34.7  34.4  27.3  38.6  F  F  N  F  F  F  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  59.0  63.0  66.0  68.0  70.0  77.0  81.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0   6.0   4.0   7.0  25.0  34.0  36.0  39.0  N  N  N  N VF VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        1.2%        0.6%