Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP032023 230609 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.20    130.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     64.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     29.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    100.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        32.8  33.0  35.2  38.2  34.7  34.3  28.8  28.2  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   31.0  31.0  32.0  31.0  20.0   8.0   4.0   5.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         79.6  77.3  77.3  75.1  68.6  68.6  70.7  68.6  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    62.0  34.0  45.0  58.0  28.0  77.0  35.0  56.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  58.0  59.0  60.0  67.0  71.0  76.0  80.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   8.0   7.0   9.0  13.0  19.0  27.0  27.0  35.0  U  N  U  U VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        6.9%        2.9%        4.9%
 25kt / 24h        6.0%        7.3%        6.6%
 30kt / 24h        4.2%        3.9%        4.1%
 35kt / 24h        3.0%        3.9%        3.5%
 40kt / 24h        1.7%        3.8%        2.8%
 45kt / 36h        1.8%        1.4%        1.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.14

 WP032023 230609 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.20    130.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    100.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        32.8  33.0  35.2  38.2  34.7  34.3  28.8  28.2  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  58.0  59.0  60.0  67.0  71.0  76.0  80.0  F  F  F  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   8.0   7.0   9.0  13.0  19.0  27.0  27.0  35.0  F  N  F  F VF VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.5%        2.7%        1.6%