Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP032023 230609 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.80    130.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     73.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     40.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    105.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.9  31.9  36.3  33.3  37.8  33.1  25.6  31.2  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   33.0  33.0  28.0  20.0   8.0   7.0   5.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         77.3  77.3  72.9  70.7  70.7  75.1  56.6  28.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    44.0  36.0  45.0  27.0  66.0  65.0  48.0  67.0  N  N  N  U  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  62.0  62.0  65.0  67.0  71.0  72.0  76.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0   3.0  10.0  24.0  34.0  47.0  40.0  42.0  N  N  U VU VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        6.9%        3.0%        5.0%
 25kt / 24h        5.0%        6.9%        6.0%
 30kt / 24h        3.6%        4.0%        3.8%
 35kt / 24h        3.2%        4.0%        3.6%
 40kt / 24h        1.3%        3.7%        2.5%
 45kt / 36h        1.2%        1.3%        1.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.02

 WP032023 230609 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.80    130.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    105.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.9  31.9  36.3  33.3  37.8  33.1  25.6  31.2  N  N  F  F  F  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  62.0  62.0  65.0  67.0  71.0  72.0  76.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0   3.0  10.0  24.0  34.0  47.0  40.0  42.0  N  N  F VF VF VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.3%        2.2%        1.2%