Rapid Intensification Guidance WP032023 230609 18UTC Storm Located at : 18.50 129.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 90. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 90.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 9.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 86.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 62.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 103.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 38.5 37.8 40.0 42.3 27.9 31.5 32.8 46.1 U U U VU N U U VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 29.0 21.0 12.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 62.9 60.7 58.6 58.6 62.9 48.5 16.7 -1.3 U U U U U U VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 35.0 35.0 5.0 41.0 68.0 32.0 54.0 47.0 N N U N N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 63.0 66.0 70.0 72.0 74.0 75.0 79.0 83.0 N N N N N F F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 17.0 28.0 42.0 45.0 39.0 42.0 28.0 41.0 U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 8.1% 2.2% 5.1% 25kt / 24h 1.8% 3.0% 2.4% 30kt / 24h 1.8% 1.5% 1.6% 35kt / 24h 1.8% 1.5% 1.6% 40kt / 24h 0.6% 1.4% 1.0% 45kt / 36h 2.3% 1.2% 1.7% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.84 WP032023 230609 18UTC Storm Located at : 18.50 129.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 90. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 90.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 9.80 F TC SIZE [%] 103.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 38.5 37.8 40.0 42.3 27.9 31.5 32.8 46.1 F F F VF N N F VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 63.0 66.0 70.0 72.0 74.0 75.0 79.0 83.0 N N N N N U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 17.0 28.0 42.0 45.0 39.0 42.0 28.0 41.0 F VF VF VF VF VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 50.1% 9.6% 29.8%