Rapid Intensification Guidance WP032023 230610 00UTC Storm Located at : 19.00 129.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 90. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 90.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 5.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 72.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 32.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.90 F TC SIZE [%] 93.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 37.0 38.9 44.7 37.1 25.4 34.0 39.5 40.0 U U VU U N U U U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 21.0 13.0 6.0 4.0 3.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 60.7 56.5 56.5 58.6 58.6 29.6 8.2 -16.6 U U U U U VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 37.0 -16.0 41.0 57.0 60.0 74.0 66.0 56.0 N U N N N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 65.0 70.0 73.0 73.0 75.0 77.0 79.0 81.0 N N N N F F F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 23.0 30.0 41.0 32.0 32.0 46.0 50.0 10.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU U Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 4.3% 1.2% 2.7% 25kt / 24h 0.7% 1.7% 1.2% 30kt / 24h 0.6% 0.7% 0.7% 35kt / 24h 0.6% 0.7% 0.7% 40kt / 24h 0.4% 0.7% 0.5% 45kt / 36h 1.1% 0.8% 1.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.72 WP032023 230610 00UTC Storm Located at : 19.00 129.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 90. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 90.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 5.80 F TC SIZE [%] 93.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 37.0 38.9 44.7 37.1 25.4 34.0 39.5 40.0 F F VF F N F F F Humidity 700-500 hPa 65.0 70.0 73.0 73.0 75.0 77.0 79.0 81.0 N N N N U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 23.0 30.0 41.0 32.0 32.0 46.0 50.0 10.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF F Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 52.2% 10.4% 31.3%