Rapid Intensification Guidance WP032023 230610 06UTC Storm Located at : 20.00 130.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 90. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 90.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 6.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 77.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 36.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 95.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 39.0 43.6 35.1 27.4 30.6 35.8 39.1 50.9 U VU U N U U U VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 9.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 56.5 58.6 60.7 60.7 41.2 18.0 -11.6 -22.2 U U U U U VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -29.0 33.0 61.0 36.0 13.0 80.0 33.0 32.0 VU N N N U N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 67.0 72.0 73.0 75.0 76.0 77.0 80.0 77.0 N N N F F F F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 31.0 48.0 38.0 36.0 41.0 30.0 21.0 5.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 1.7% 0.6% 1.2% 25kt / 24h 0.6% 1.7% 1.1% 30kt / 24h 0.4% 0.8% 0.6% 35kt / 24h 0.4% 0.8% 0.6% 40kt / 24h 0.2% 0.7% 0.4% 45kt / 36h 0.4% 0.6% 0.5% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.72 WP032023 230610 06UTC Storm Located at : 20.00 130.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 90. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 90.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 6.60 F TC SIZE [%] 95.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 39.0 43.6 35.1 27.4 30.6 35.8 39.1 50.9 F VF F N N F F VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 67.0 72.0 73.0 75.0 76.0 77.0 80.0 77.0 N N N U U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 31.0 48.0 38.0 36.0 41.0 30.0 21.0 5.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 61.6% 9.0% 35.3%