Rapid Intensification Guidance WP032023 230610 12UTC Storm Located at : 20.70 130.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 85. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 85.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 6.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 73.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 38.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 100.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 46.3 35.4 27.8 26.4 35.7 38.9 46.6 69.4 VU U N N U U VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 6.0 5.0 5.0 3.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 63.6 65.7 70.1 63.6 34.6 13.2 -12.9 -23.7 U U U U VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 43.0 58.0 46.0 54.0 60.0 44.0 56.0 36.0 N N N N N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 71.0 72.0 75.0 74.0 77.0 77.0 78.0 73.0 N N F N F F F N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 55.0 28.0 44.0 33.0 33.0 33.0 12.0 11.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU U U Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.8% 0.4% 0.6% 25kt / 24h 0.6% 1.6% 1.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.8% 0.5% 35kt / 24h 0.2% 0.7% 0.5% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.7% 0.4% 45kt / 36h 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.76 WP032023 230610 12UTC Storm Located at : 20.70 130.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 85. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 85.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 6.60 F TC SIZE [%] 100.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 46.3 35.4 27.8 26.4 35.7 38.9 46.6 69.4 VF F N N F F VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 71.0 72.0 75.0 74.0 77.0 77.0 78.0 73.0 N N U N U U U N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 55.0 28.0 44.0 33.0 33.0 33.0 12.0 11.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF F F Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 90.5% 7.1% 48.8%