Rapid Intensification Guidance WP032023 230610 18UTC Storm Located at : 21.80 131.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 80. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 80.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 4.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 70.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 49.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.80 F TC SIZE [%] 96.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 36.5 26.1 30.0 32.6 37.3 40.1 52.8 61.2 U N N U U U VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 4.0 3.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 70.7 70.7 62.4 47.7 25.4 -5.9 -16.3 -23.7 U U U U VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 56.0 60.0 45.0 33.0 83.0 19.0 86.0 58.0 N N N N N U F N Humidity 700-500 hPa 73.0 77.0 78.0 79.0 77.0 76.0 69.0 69.0 N F F F F F N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 37.0 34.0 30.0 42.0 40.0 17.0 -10.0 37.0 VU VU VU VU VU U F VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.7% 0.5% 0.6% 25kt / 24h 0.5% 1.2% 0.8% 30kt / 24h 0.3% 0.6% 0.4% 35kt / 24h 0.1% 0.5% 0.3% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.5% 0.2% 45kt / 36h 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.46 WP032023 230610 18UTC Storm Located at : 21.80 131.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 80.