Rapid Intensification Guidance WP032023 230611 00UTC Storm Located at : 23.20 131.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 70. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 70.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -15.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 59.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 41.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 8.80 F TC SIZE [%] 101.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 26.2 30.3 42.0 42.8 44.9 48.4 63.6 81.6 N N VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 2.0 12.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 72.4 68.5 57.7 43.6 29.3 1.4 -10.3 -21.0 U U U U VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 73.0 40.0 32.0 76.0 44.0 90.0 23.0 47.0 N N N N N F U N Humidity 700-500 hPa 71.0 73.0 74.0 78.0 73.0 68.0 63.0 62.0 N N N F N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 21.0 30.0 29.0 49.0 17.0 11.0 34.0 34.0 VU VU VU VU U U VU VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.4% 0.3% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.86 WP032023 230611 00UTC Storm Located at : 23.20 131.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 70.