Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP032023 230611 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     25.60    133.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     35.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     13.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    102.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        36.0  40.6  37.2  43.2  44.3  59.8  86.2 107.7  U  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         44.3  35.0  26.7  19.3  -6.6 -16.3 -19.9 -25.0  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    72.0  92.0  78.0  45.0  45.0  29.0  41.0  43.0  N  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  76.0  75.0  78.0  75.0  67.0  65.0  62.0  N  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  32.0  65.0  64.0  47.0   5.0  27.0  54.0  63.0 VU VU VU VU  N VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.4%        0.1%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 25.84

 WP032023 230611 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     25.60    133.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.