Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP032023 230611 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.70    135.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -20.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     26.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      5.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    112.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        38.5  38.8  43.5  48.8  51.2  59.4  59.4  59.4  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         53.6  46.7  38.2  14.7   6.2  -2.7  -2.7  -2.7  U  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    92.0  96.0  33.0  -1.0  16.0   5.0   5.0   5.0  F  F  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   77.0  77.0  76.0  76.0  66.0  62.0  62.0  62.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  64.0  39.0  36.0  18.0  10.0 -14.0 -14.0 -14.0 VU VU VU VU  U VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 24.76

 WP032023 230611 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.70    135.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.