Rapid Intensification Guidance WP032023 230612 00UTC Storm Located at : 28.10 136.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 50.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -20.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 6.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 13.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 3.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 7.70 F TC SIZE [%] 115.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 36.1 42.9 44.7 45.5 62.5 84.2 84.2 84.2 U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 60.8 55.4 34.1 27.6 15.7 7.7 7.7 7.7 U U VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 89.0 40.0 29.0 49.0 18.0 16.0 16.0 16.0 F N N N U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 78.0 79.0 80.0 74.0 67.0 62.0 62.0 62.0 F F F N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 49.0 53.0 35.0 0.0 25.0 23.0 23.0 23.0 VU VU VU N VU VU VU VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 24.38 WP032023 230612 00UTC Storm Located at : 28.10 136.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50.