Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP042023 230714 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.80    118.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     37.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     24.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    160.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.1  27.5  35.9  36.0  28.9  23.1  25.3  22.8  N  N  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   70.0  66.0  59.0  54.0  56.0  61.0  38.0  30.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    48.0  31.0  31.0  -1.0  -1.0  44.0   8.0   9.0  N  N  N  U  U  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  68.0  70.0  70.0  71.0  73.0  75.0  74.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -4.0  -1.0   2.0   4.0  -5.0  -3.0   0.0  N  F  N  N  N  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.9%        1.8%        1.4%
 25kt / 24h        3.1%       12.0%        7.5%
 30kt / 24h        1.7%        4.2%        3.0%
 35kt / 24h        1.7%        3.5%        2.6%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        3.5%        1.8%
 45kt / 36h        1.5%       14.6%        8.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        4.4%        2.2%
 55kt / 48h        5.6%        7.5%        6.5%
 70kt / 48h        2.2%        5.2%        3.7%
 65kt / 72h        9.2%       18.2%       13.7%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 30.78

 WP042023 230714 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.80    118.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    160.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.1  27.5  35.9  36.0  28.9  23.1  25.3  22.8  N  N  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  68.0  70.0  70.0  71.0  73.0  75.0  74.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -4.0  -1.0   2.0   4.0  -5.0  -3.0   0.0  N  U  N  N  N  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%