Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP042023 230714 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.60    117.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     78.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     63.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    149.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        34.4  36.2  34.6  28.6  26.9  24.4  23.5  26.4  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   55.0  53.0  53.0  57.0  60.0  40.0  31.0  11.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    41.0  30.0   7.0  44.0  26.0  54.0  36.0   6.0  N  N  U  N  U  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  70.0  71.0  70.0  69.0  69.0  71.0  71.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   1.0  -2.0   0.0  -3.0  -2.0   0.0   8.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.1%        2.2%        1.7%
 25kt / 24h        6.4%       19.7%       13.0%
 30kt / 24h        2.6%        8.5%        5.6%
 35kt / 24h        2.6%        7.7%        5.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        7.2%        3.6%
 45kt / 36h        3.5%       27.4%       15.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       10.7%        5.3%
 55kt / 48h        7.5%       12.2%        9.9%
 70kt / 48h        1.6%        8.3%        5.0%
 65kt / 72h        8.8%       21.4%       15.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 30.70

 WP042023 230714 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.60    117.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    149.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        34.4  36.2  34.6  28.6  26.9  24.4  23.5  26.4  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  70.0  71.0  70.0  69.0  69.0  71.0  71.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   1.0  -2.0   0.0  -3.0  -2.0   0.0   8.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%