Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP042023 230715 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.10    117.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     70.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     55.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    155.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        35.3  33.1  29.9  28.8  25.3  20.3  23.2  26.9  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   56.0  56.0  60.0  63.0  41.0  36.0   1.0  21.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 117.9  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    54.0  -1.0  24.0  11.0  31.0  27.0   0.0  21.0  N  U  U  U  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  70.0  68.0  67.0  70.0  67.0  63.0  62.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   3.0  -3.0  -4.0  -3.0  -2.0   4.0   5.0  N  N  N  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.9%        3.1%        3.0%
 25kt / 24h       10.2%       23.9%       17.1%
 30kt / 24h        7.2%       11.0%        9.1%
 35kt / 24h        7.2%       10.5%        8.8%
 40kt / 24h        0.2%       10.1%        5.1%
 45kt / 36h        5.3%       28.8%       17.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       11.8%        5.9%
 55kt / 48h        6.8%       12.8%        9.8%
 70kt / 48h        1.6%        9.0%        5.3%
 65kt / 72h        5.2%       17.6%       11.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 30.50

 WP042023 230715 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.10    117.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    155.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        35.3  33.1  29.9  28.8  25.3  20.3  23.2  26.9  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  70.0  68.0  67.0  70.0  67.0  63.0  62.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   3.0  -3.0  -4.0  -3.0  -2.0   4.0   5.0  N  N  N  U  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%