Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP042023 230715 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.00    118.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     52.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     37.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    149.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        32.6  25.6  29.1  26.2  26.7  24.2  30.6  31.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   55.0  54.0  56.0  60.0  43.0  40.0  22.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 129.3  84.6  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     9.0  27.0  33.0  20.0  16.0  16.0   1.0  68.0  U  U  N  U  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   81.0  82.0  81.0  83.0  84.0  81.0  78.0  76.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   0.0  -2.0   0.0   0.0  -2.0   7.0  10.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.3%        1.8%        1.6%
 25kt / 24h        5.5%       16.2%       10.9%
 30kt / 24h        3.1%        6.8%        4.9%
 35kt / 24h        3.1%        6.0%        4.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        6.0%        3.0%
 45kt / 36h        3.6%       18.0%       10.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        6.0%        3.0%
 55kt / 48h        5.7%        9.3%        7.5%
 70kt / 48h        0.6%        5.0%        2.8%
 65kt / 72h        1.1%        7.8%        4.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 30.56

 WP042023 230715 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.00    118.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    149.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        32.6  25.6  29.1  26.2  26.7  24.2  30.6  31.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   81.0  82.0  81.0  83.0  84.0  81.0  78.0  76.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   0.0  -2.0   0.0   0.0  -2.0   7.0  10.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%