Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP042023 230715 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.40    117.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     54.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     44.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    147.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.9  26.2  28.5  23.5  27.3  30.5  29.7  30.1  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   54.0  57.0  61.0  58.0  35.0  52.0  40.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0  89.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    64.0  57.0  48.0  31.0  43.0  -7.0  51.0  60.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  74.0  75.0  75.0  76.0  72.0  76.0  75.0  N  N  F  F  F  N  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0  -1.0  -2.0  -6.0  -3.0   2.0   5.0   6.0  N  N  N  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.4%        2.7%        2.5%
 25kt / 24h        9.9%       22.0%       15.9%
 30kt / 24h        5.1%       10.0%        7.5%
 35kt / 24h        4.9%        9.3%        7.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.4%        9.3%        4.8%
 45kt / 36h        6.4%       20.1%       13.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        6.8%        3.4%
 55kt / 48h        6.1%        9.0%        7.5%
 70kt / 48h        0.9%        4.2%        2.5%
 65kt / 72h        2.7%        7.3%        5.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 30.52

 WP042023 230715 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.40    117.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    147.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.9  26.2  28.5  23.5  27.3  30.5  29.7  30.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  74.0  75.0  75.0  76.0  72.0  76.0  75.0  N  N  U  U  U  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0  -1.0  -2.0  -6.0  -3.0   2.0   5.0   6.0  N  N  N  U  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%