Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP042023 230715 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.70    117.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     54.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     49.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    130.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.9  26.3  19.2  26.0  28.0  33.2  31.2  26.4  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   57.0  62.0  54.0  40.0  37.0   9.0  11.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0  89.8  55.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    55.0  35.0  37.0  25.0  26.0   0.0  48.0  50.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  72.0  71.0  72.0  74.0  73.0  81.0  80.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   0.0  -2.0  -5.0  -2.0   7.0   2.0   3.0  N  N  N  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        8.2%        5.4%        6.8%
 25kt / 24h       18.8%       34.1%       26.5%
 30kt / 24h       12.1%       18.4%       15.2%
 35kt / 24h       11.6%       18.4%       15.0%
 40kt / 24h        2.3%       18.4%       10.4%
 45kt / 36h       12.9%       29.6%       21.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       11.9%        5.9%
 55kt / 48h        6.3%       10.3%        8.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.8%        4.9%        2.8%
 65kt / 72h        0.2%        4.2%        2.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 30.54

 WP042023 230715 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.70    117.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    130.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.9  26.3  19.2  26.0  28.0  33.2  31.2  26.4  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  72.0  71.0  72.0  74.0  73.0  81.0  80.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   0.0  -2.0  -5.0  -2.0   7.0   2.0   3.0  N  N  N  U  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%