Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP042023 230716 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.10    116.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     47.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     43.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    122.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.3  19.1  18.8  22.1  29.9  29.1  31.8  24.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   58.0  50.0  39.0  35.0  21.0  36.0   1.0   0.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0  43.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    38.0  31.0  29.0  40.0   6.0  36.0  60.0   5.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  73.0  74.0  73.0  75.0  82.0  81.0  84.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -2.0  -3.0  -2.0   3.0   2.0   7.0   5.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       11.3%        7.4%        9.3%
 25kt / 24h       21.0%       37.4%       29.2%
 30kt / 24h       15.4%       22.6%       19.0%
 35kt / 24h       14.7%       22.6%       18.7%
 40kt / 24h        4.9%       22.6%       13.7%
 45kt / 36h       14.0%       26.2%       20.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       10.2%        5.1%
 55kt / 48h        7.2%       11.2%        9.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.8%        4.7%        2.8%
 65kt / 72h        0.2%        5.2%        2.7%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.84

 WP042023 230716 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.10    116.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    122.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.3  19.1  18.8  22.1  29.9  29.1  31.8  24.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  73.0  74.0  73.0  75.0  82.0  81.0  84.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -2.0  -3.0  -2.0   3.0   2.0   7.0   5.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%