Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP052023 230721 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.30    131.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     31.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     20.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    111.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.9  17.6  18.2  16.0  16.4  18.1  17.1  13.9  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   94.0  82.0  75.0  71.0  75.0  86.0  82.0  65.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    59.0  86.0  94.0  90.0 106.0 101.0 102.0 110.0  N  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  73.0  75.0  76.0  78.0  79.0  81.0  81.0  N  N  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -2.0  -3.0  -4.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        6.9%        9.5%        8.2%
 25kt / 24h       34.6%       56.2%       45.4%
 30kt / 24h       19.3%       34.1%       26.7%
 35kt / 24h        9.7%       33.1%       21.4%
 40kt / 24h        5.7%       33.1%       19.4%
 45kt / 36h       40.5%       73.1%       56.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       52.9%       26.4%
 55kt / 48h       51.4%       60.0%       55.7%
 70kt / 48h       28.6%       59.8%       44.2%
 65kt / 72h       61.9%       82.5%       72.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.54

 WP052023 230721 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.30    131.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    111.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.9  17.6  18.2  16.0  16.4  18.1  17.1  13.9  N  N  N  U  U  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  73.0  75.0  76.0  78.0  79.0  81.0  81.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -2.0  -3.0  -4.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  U  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%