Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP052023 230721 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.40    131.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     35.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     25.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    102.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.9  20.2  17.3  13.3  15.9  13.6  15.5  19.1  F  N  F  F  F  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   94.0  82.0  75.0  71.0  73.0  85.0  84.0  61.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    87.0 123.0 103.0 127.0 186.0 140.0 128.0  38.0  F  F  F  F VF VF  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  75.0  76.0  78.0  77.0  80.0  83.0  81.0  N  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -1.0  -5.0  -2.0   0.0   1.0   4.0   7.0  F  N  F  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        6.7%        8.8%        7.8%
 25kt / 24h       42.4%       60.4%       51.4%
 30kt / 24h       21.4%       36.7%       29.1%
 35kt / 24h        9.0%       36.0%       22.5%
 40kt / 24h        9.0%       36.0%       22.5%
 45kt / 36h       43.9%       75.1%       59.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       53.0%       26.5%
 55kt / 48h       52.1%       48.5%       50.3%
 70kt / 48h       48.5%       65.0%       56.8%
 65kt / 72h       61.9%       84.3%       73.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.52

 WP052023 230721 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.40    131.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    102.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.9  20.2  17.3  13.3  15.9  13.6  15.5  19.1  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  75.0  76.0  78.0  77.0  80.0  83.0  81.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -1.0  -5.0  -2.0   0.0   1.0   4.0   7.0  U  N  U  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%