Rapid Intensification Guidance WP052023 230722 06UTC Storm Located at : 14.60 130.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 46.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 24.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.10 F TC SIZE [%] 114.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 19.6 17.1 15.5 16.7 20.7 28.4 26.3 27.4 N F F F N N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 75.0 72.0 78.0 89.0 79.0 67.0 69.0 88.0 N N N F N N N F Potential [kt] 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 F F F F F F F F 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 95.0 108.0 136.0 144.0 156.0 124.0 101.0 76.0 F F VF VF VF F F N Humidity 700-500 hPa 71.0 72.0 71.0 74.0 73.0 77.0 77.0 76.0 N N N N N F F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -3.0 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 -5.0 2.0 6.0 N N N N N F N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 4.0% 6.9% 5.4% 25kt / 24h 40.4% 56.5% 48.5% 30kt / 24h 18.5% 35.3% 26.9% 35kt / 24h 7.8% 34.3% 21.0% 40kt / 24h 5.5% 34.3% 19.9% 45kt / 36h 40.2% 65.7% 52.9% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 41.3% 20.7% 55kt / 48h 51.1% 49.8% 50.5% 70kt / 48h 24.8% 40.3% 32.6% 65kt / 72h 61.9% 62.3% 62.1% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.64 WP052023 230722 06UTC Storm Located at : 14.60 130.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 114.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 19.6 17.1 15.5 16.7 20.7 28.4 26.3 27.4 N N U N N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 71.0 72.0 71.0 74.0 73.0 77.0 77.0 76.0 N N N N N U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -3.0 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 -5.0 2.0 6.0 N N N N N U N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%