Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP052023 230722 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.50    130.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     64.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     54.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    111.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.7  16.2  16.1  14.4  21.4  25.3  33.9  28.2  F  F  F  F  N  N  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   73.0  77.0  91.0 101.0  78.0  68.0  71.0  98.0  N  N  F  F  N  N  N  F
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   118.0 140.0 149.0 137.0 144.0  99.0 114.0  79.0  F VF VF VF VF  F  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  73.0  74.0  73.0  77.0  79.0  79.0  77.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -1.0   0.0  -1.0  -5.0   0.0  -2.0  -3.0  N  N  N  N  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        8.5%       12.0%       10.2%
 25kt / 24h       58.8%       71.2%       65.0%
 30kt / 24h       30.6%       54.0%       42.3%
 35kt / 24h       14.1%       54.0%       34.0%
 40kt / 24h       14.1%       53.4%       33.8%
 45kt / 36h       52.8%       75.5%       64.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       55.5%       27.8%
 55kt / 48h       51.6%       61.0%       56.3%
 70kt / 48h       25.2%       49.2%       37.2%
 65kt / 72h       61.9%       61.9%       61.9%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.64

 WP052023 230722 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.50    130.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    111.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.7  16.2  16.1  14.4  21.4  25.3  33.9  28.2  U  U  U  U  N  N  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  73.0  74.0  73.0  77.0  79.0  79.0  77.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -1.0   0.0  -1.0  -5.0   0.0  -2.0  -3.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%