Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP052023 230722 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.70    129.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     81.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     58.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    120.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.9  12.9  10.0  11.9  13.7  21.5  20.8  19.9  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   73.0  77.0  82.0  86.0  97.0  89.0  63.0  77.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  N  N
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   173.0 143.0 121.0 108.0 136.0  53.0  17.0  70.0 VF VF  F  F VF  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  75.0  76.0  77.0  77.0  77.0  78.0  75.0  N  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0   2.0  -1.0   6.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       20.2%       27.7%       23.9%
 25kt / 24h       81.8%       87.2%       84.5%
 30kt / 24h       60.8%       81.9%       71.4%
 35kt / 24h       39.6%       81.9%       60.8%
 40kt / 24h       34.5%       80.6%       57.6%
 45kt / 36h       74.3%       89.4%       81.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       81.7%       40.8%
 55kt / 48h       58.0%       82.5%       70.3%
 70kt / 48h       58.0%       77.3%       67.6%
 65kt / 72h       61.9%       79.7%       70.8%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.62

 WP052023 230722 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.70    129.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    120.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.9  12.9  10.0  11.9  13.7  21.5  20.8  19.9  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  75.0  76.0  77.0  77.0  77.0  78.0  75.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0   2.0  -1.0   6.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%