Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP052023 230723 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.80    129.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     83.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     61.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    118.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.8  12.0  14.2  14.2   9.8  24.0  17.5  20.8  F  F  F  F  F  N  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   77.0  88.0  90.0  82.0  63.0  58.0  84.0  69.0  N  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   148.0  78.0 107.0 130.0  40.0  39.0  27.0  12.0 VF  N  F  F  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  73.0  73.0  75.0  78.0  78.0  79.0  77.0  N  N  N  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   3.0   0.0  -2.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       58.9%       51.2%       55.1%
 25kt / 24h       92.0%       91.4%       91.7%
 30kt / 24h       83.0%       90.0%       86.5%
 35kt / 24h       70.6%       90.0%       80.3%
 40kt / 24h       62.1%       89.1%       75.6%
 45kt / 36h       85.3%       91.5%       88.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       86.8%       43.4%
 55kt / 48h       52.2%       79.3%       65.8%
 70kt / 48h       25.0%       70.0%       47.5%
 65kt / 72h       58.6%       70.8%       64.7%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.62

 WP052023 230723 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.80    129.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    118.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.8  12.0  14.2  14.2   9.8  24.0  17.5  20.8  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  73.0  73.0  75.0  78.0  78.0  79.0  77.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   3.0   0.0  -2.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%