Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP052023 230723 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.10    127.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    25.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     78.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     64.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    123.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.1  14.8  16.8  16.3  16.3  11.9  23.8  25.9  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   91.0  82.0  72.0  63.0  60.0  86.0  75.0  60.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]         85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   125.0 136.0 108.0  39.0  40.0  20.0  87.0  37.0  F VF  F  N  N  U  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   78.0  76.0  81.0  82.0  83.0  79.0  78.0  77.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -1.0  -2.0  -1.0  -3.0   3.0   0.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       88.0%       65.9%       77.0%
 25kt / 24h       94.6%       90.0%       92.3%
 30kt / 24h       94.3%       90.0%       92.2%
 35kt / 24h       93.7%       90.0%       91.9%
 40kt / 24h       89.5%       89.3%       89.4%
 45kt / 36h       87.9%       75.7%       81.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       63.3%       31.7%
 55kt / 48h       51.3%       62.9%       57.1%
 70kt / 48h       24.8%       42.6%       33.7%
 65kt / 72h       30.5%       35.4%       33.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.68

 WP052023 230723 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.10    127.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    25.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    123.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.1  14.8  16.8  16.3  16.3  11.9  23.8  25.9  U  U  N  U  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   78.0  76.0  81.0  82.0  83.0  79.0  78.0  77.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -1.0  -2.0  -1.0  -3.0   3.0   0.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%