Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP052023 230723 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.20    126.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    25.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     88.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     71.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    123.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.4  15.9  17.1  16.6  22.0  25.2  32.1  25.1  F  F  F  F  N  N  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   76.0  65.0  58.0  60.0  94.0  95.0  72.0  60.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  N  N
 Potential [kt]         75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   109.0 115.0 111.0  77.0  78.0  82.0  84.0  20.0  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  75.0  76.0  73.0  75.0  76.0  74.0  73.0  N  F  F  N  F  F  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -5.0  -3.0  -3.0  -1.0  -6.0  -1.0  -2.0  F  F  N  N  N  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       82.4%       59.0%       70.7%
 25kt / 24h       87.9%       84.2%       86.1%
 30kt / 24h       85.3%       84.2%       84.8%
 35kt / 24h       85.0%       84.2%       84.6%
 40kt / 24h       72.9%       82.7%       77.8%
 45kt / 36h       92.7%       70.9%       81.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       57.3%       28.7%
 55kt / 48h       47.9%       34.8%       41.4%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.72

 WP052023 230723 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.20    126.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    25.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    123.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.4  15.9  17.1  16.6  22.0  25.2  32.1  25.1  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  75.0  76.0  73.0  75.0  76.0  74.0  73.0  N  U  U  N  U  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -5.0  -3.0  -3.0  -1.0  -6.0  -1.0  -2.0  U  U  N  N  N  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%