Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP052023 230724 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.30    126.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   100.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   100.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    20.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     83.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     73.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    118.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.3  12.6  16.5  16.3  13.1  25.1  25.5  21.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   68.0  58.0  51.0  56.0  95.0  78.0  80.0  51.0  N  N  N  N  F  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]         65.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   116.0  40.0  30.0  22.0   2.0  39.0  61.0  -2.0  F  N  N  U  U  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   83.0  83.0  83.0  85.0  80.0  78.0  75.0  75.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -2.0  -5.0  -8.0  -2.0  -2.0  -2.0  -3.0  N  N  F  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       76.4%       47.5%       62.0%
 25kt / 24h       68.4%       67.3%       67.8%
 30kt / 24h       68.4%       66.6%       67.5%
 35kt / 24h       68.4%       66.6%       67.5%
 40kt / 24h       47.2%       64.6%       55.9%
 45kt / 36h       93.2%       60.3%       76.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       47.9%       24.0%
 55kt / 48h       40.9%       19.9%       30.4%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.60

 WP052023 230724 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.30    126.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   100.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   100.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    20.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    118.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.3  12.6  16.5  16.3  13.1  25.1  25.5  21.0  U  U  N  U  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   83.0  83.0  83.0  85.0  80.0  78.0  75.0  75.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -2.0  -5.0  -8.0  -2.0  -2.0  -2.0  -3.0  N  N  U  U  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%