Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP052023 230724 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.50    125.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   120.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   120.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    20.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     99.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     86.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    118.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.4  21.7  25.8  27.3  27.2  25.2  20.3  13.2  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   51.0  55.0  74.0  95.0  59.0  87.0  78.0  45.0  N  N  N  F  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]         45.0  45.0  45.0  45.0  45.0  45.0  45.0  45.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    86.0 102.0  87.0  63.0  86.0  83.0  48.0  36.0  F  F  F  N  F  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  73.0  76.0  76.0  76.0  74.0  75.0  72.0  N  N  F  F  F  N  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -4.0  -5.0  -2.0   0.0   1.0  -1.0  -4.0  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       63.3%       26.2%       44.8%
 25kt / 24h       47.7%       34.1%       40.9%
 30kt / 24h       35.2%       27.8%       31.5%
 35kt / 24h       33.4%       27.8%       30.6%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.64

 WP052023 230724 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.50    125.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   120.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   120.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    20.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    118.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.4  21.7  25.8  27.3  27.2  25.2  20.3  13.2  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  73.0  76.0  76.0  76.0  74.0  75.0  72.0  N  N  U  U  U  N  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -4.0  -5.0  -2.0   0.0   1.0  -1.0  -4.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        1.3%        0.7%