Rapid Intensification Guidance WP052023 230724 18UTC Storm Located at : 17.00 125.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 130. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 130.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 15.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 7.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 78.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 65.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.90 F TC SIZE [%] 114.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 17.5 11.4 12.8 17.0 28.6 29.2 22.3 17.2 F F F F N N N F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 57.0 81.0 94.0 86.0 76.0 61.0 25.0 0.0 N N F N N N U U Potential [kt] 35.0 35.0 35.0 35.0 35.0 35.0 35.0 4.8 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 55.0 41.0 31.0 54.0 77.0 76.0 -13.0 -51.0 N N N N N N U VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 72.0 74.0 74.0 73.0 74.0 74.0 75.0 72.0 N N N N N N F N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -12.0 -2.0 -2.0 -3.0 -9.0 -9.0 -34.0 -12.0 F N N N F F VF F Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 44.3% 13.7% 29.0% 25kt / 24h 26.2% 20.0% 23.1% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.70 WP052023 230724 18UTC Storm Located at : 17.00 125.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 130. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 130.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 15.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 7.00 F TC SIZE [%] 114.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 17.5 11.4 12.8 17.0 28.6 29.2 22.3 17.2 N U U N N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 72.0 74.0 74.0 73.0 74.0 74.0 75.0 72.0 N N N N N N U N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -12.0 -2.0 -2.0 -3.0 -9.0 -9.0 -34.0 -12.0 U N N N U U VU U Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.8% 0.4%