Rapid Intensification Guidance WP052023 230725 06UTC Storm Located at : 18.40 123.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 125. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 125.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 6.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 98.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 69.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 131.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 15.5 18.9 27.0 26.0 22.7 18.5 15.7 18.8 F N N N N N F N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 97.0 89.0 83.0 86.0 75.0 43.0 19.0 0.0 F F N N N N U U Potential [kt] 40.0 40.0 40.0 40.0 40.0 40.0 30.1 -17.0 U U U U U U VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 12.0 50.0 77.0 97.0 1.0 23.0 -53.0 34.0 U N N F U U VU N Humidity 700-500 hPa 73.0 75.0 75.0 75.0 74.0 78.0 76.0 80.0 N F F F N F F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -2.0 -3.0 -1.0 -6.0 1.0 -5.0 -18.0 -2.0 N N N F N F VF N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 6.1% 4.6% 5.3% 25kt / 24h 6.3% 6.5% 6.4% 30kt / 24h 3.9% 4.2% 4.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.88 WP052023 230725 06UTC Storm Located at : 18.40 123.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 125. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 125.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 6.60 F TC SIZE [%] 131.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 15.5 18.9 27.0 26.0 22.7 18.5 15.7 18.8 U N N N N N U N Humidity 700-500 hPa 73.0 75.0 75.0 75.0 74.0 78.0 76.0 80.0 N U U U N U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -2.0 -3.0 -1.0 -6.0 1.0 -5.0 -18.0 -2.0 N N N U N U VU N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 2.9% 1.5%