Rapid Intensification Guidance WP052023 230725 12UTC Storm Located at : 18.90 122.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 120. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 120.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 8.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 80.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 50.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 126.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 16.0 25.0 32.7 25.0 23.4 21.6 17.1 15.8 F N U N N N F F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 87.0 84.0 92.0 91.0 60.0 28.0 0.0 0.0 N N F F N U U U Potential [kt] 45.0 45.0 45.0 45.0 45.0 45.0 13.0 -19.5 U U U U U U VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 27.0 53.0 91.0 85.0 3.0 -50.0 -10.0 0.0 U N F F U VU U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 74.0 76.0 73.0 71.0 74.0 73.0 76.0 80.0 N F N N N N F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -3.0 -4.0 2.0 -5.0 7.0 -2.0 -18.0 12.0 N F N F N N VF U Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 2.2% 1.9% 2.0% 25kt / 24h 2.5% 3.2% 2.8% 30kt / 24h 1.4% 1.9% 1.6% 35kt / 24h 1.0% 1.4% 1.2% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.88 WP052023 230725 12UTC Storm Located at : 18.90 122.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 120. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 120.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 8.20 F TC SIZE [%] 126.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 16.0 25.0 32.7 25.0 23.4 21.6 17.1 15.8 U N F N N N N U Humidity 700-500 hPa 74.0 76.0 73.0 71.0 74.0 73.0 76.0 80.0 N U N N N N U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -3.0 -4.0 2.0 -5.0 7.0 -2.0 -18.0 12.0 N U N U N N VU F Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 5.3% 2.6%