Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP052023 230726 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.90    121.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   110.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   110.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     80.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     54.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    122.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        31.4  23.9  22.3  19.4  24.6  17.9  13.8  16.5  U  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   91.0 100.0  96.0  71.0  43.0   9.0   0.0   0.0  F  F  F  N  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         55.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  42.9  -3.3  23.0  U  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    93.0  43.0  43.0  81.0  41.0  26.0 -22.0  95.0  F  N  N  N  N  U VU  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  74.0  72.0  73.0  70.0  70.0  75.0  85.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0  -7.0   3.0  -2.0 -15.0  21.0  16.0  N  N  F  N  N VF VU  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.9%        1.2%        1.6%
 25kt / 24h        4.0%        4.5%        4.3%
 30kt / 24h        2.2%        2.6%        2.4%
 35kt / 24h        1.5%        2.1%        1.8%
 40kt / 24h        0.2%        2.0%        1.1%
 45kt / 36h       30.4%        1.6%       16.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.96

 WP052023 230726 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.90    121.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   110.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   110.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    122.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        31.4  23.9  22.3  19.4  24.6  17.9  13.8  16.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  74.0  72.0  73.0  70.0  70.0  75.0  85.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0  -7.0   3.0  -2.0 -15.0  21.0  16.0  N  N  U  N  N VU VF  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        5.0%        2.5%