Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP052023 230726 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.30    121.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   100.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   100.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     75.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     40.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    126.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.9  21.4  26.1  30.1  19.6  13.5  21.2  23.4  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  102.0  91.0  67.0  56.0  26.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  F  F  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         65.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  65.0   0.5  31.2 -20.8  U  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    38.0  41.0  63.0  42.0 -22.0  27.0  14.0 130.0  N  N  N  N VU  U  U  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   79.0  79.0  77.0  77.0  74.0  77.0  82.0  81.0  F  F  F  F  N  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -3.0   0.0   2.0 -14.0   3.0  34.0  15.0  N  N  N  N VF  N VU  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.3%        1.4%        1.3%
 25kt / 24h        2.3%        4.1%        3.2%
 30kt / 24h        1.2%        2.3%        1.8%
 35kt / 24h        1.0%        1.9%        1.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.8%        0.9%
 45kt / 36h       12.2%        1.1%        6.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.98

 WP052023 230726 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.30    121.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   100.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   100.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    126.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.9  21.4  26.1  30.1  19.6  13.5  21.2  23.4  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   79.0  79.0  77.0  77.0  74.0  77.0  82.0  81.0  U  U  U  U  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -3.0   0.0   2.0 -14.0   3.0  34.0  15.0  N  N  N  N VU  N VF  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        3.0%        1.5%