Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP052023 230726 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.60    120.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    95.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    95.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     58.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     24.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    128.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.5  23.9  23.2  22.9  18.9  15.5  19.4  28.9  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   92.0  67.0  54.0  41.0   2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  F  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         70.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  55.7  -3.3   7.9   5.5  U  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    84.0 142.0  41.0  11.0   1.0 -24.0  69.0  82.0  N VF  N  U  U VU  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  73.0  73.0  71.0  74.0  72.0  76.0  75.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   1.0   6.0  -2.0 -18.0  17.0  24.0  11.0  N  N  N  N VF  U VU  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.2%        2.4%        2.8%
 25kt / 24h        6.2%        8.0%        7.1%
 30kt / 24h        4.3%        4.7%        4.5%
 35kt / 24h        3.0%        4.2%        3.6%
 40kt / 24h        0.5%        4.2%        2.3%
 45kt / 36h       14.6%        1.8%        8.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.96

 WP052023 230726 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.60    120.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    95.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    95.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    128.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.5  23.9  23.2  22.9  18.9  15.5  19.4  28.9  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  73.0  73.0  71.0  74.0  72.0  76.0  75.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   1.0   6.0  -2.0 -18.0  17.0  24.0  11.0  N  N  N  N VU  F VF  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        1.4%        0.7%